35th Senate District Special Election Could Reshape Michigan Legislature as Democrats Hold Narrow Lead

A Make-or-Break Election for Control of the Michigan Senate

With the May 5 special election in District 35 just weeks away, Michigan voters face a choice that could determine whether Democrats maintain their slim majority in the state Senate or hand control to a tied legislature.

Currently, Democrats hold a one-seat advantage in the Michigan Senate with a 19-18 margin. If Democrat Chedrick Greene wins the special election, Democrats will keep their majority. But if Republican Jason Tunney prevails, the Senate will be tied at 18-18, forcing complex negotiations and potentially shifting power dynamics throughout the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

The Stakes: More Than Just One Seat

The 35th Senate District covers parts of Bay, Midland, and Saginaw counties—the crook in Michigan's lower peninsula shaped like the "mitten hand." The seat has been vacant since Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat, departed Lansing for the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2025.

This special election determines who will complete Rivet's two-year state Senate term, which expires at the end of this year. The winner of the November general election will take office in 2027.

"Two months away from the special election that will determine the functional make-up of the state Senate," noted Michigan Public Radio's Zoe Clark and Rick Pluta in their recent analysis. "The 35th Senate district election is an important race that has folks in Lansing wondering what comes next."

The Democratic Candidate: Chedrick Greene

Chedrick Greene, a Saginaw firefighter and Marine veteran, emerged victorious from a six-way Democratic primary on February 3, 2026. Greene bested his nearest opponent by nearly 33 percentage points, while Democratic primary turnout was 46% higher than Republican primary turnout.

Greene's background includes service as a Saginaw fire captain and decorated Marine veteran. He previously worked for McDonald Rivet as a district assistant when she served in the state legislature and was appointed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer to serve on the Statewide Housing Partnership under the Michigan State Housing Development Authority.

Despite his strong primary showing, Greene's campaign faces challenges in the general election. His campaign has relied heavily on out-of-state financial support, a point that Tunney's campaign has exploited in their messaging.

"The Greene-for-state Senate campaign is excited about what our candidate, team and volunteers hear on the doors, and when out and about in the community," a campaign statement read. "Enthusiasm is strong. People are sharing that they've already cast their vote for 'Greene the Marine' and asking to take pictures with supporters in Greene T-shirts while shopping at Sam's Club."

The Republican Challenge: Jason Tunney

Republican Jason Tunney, a Saginaw-based attorney and businessman, is positioning himself as a serious threat to Greene. Tunney previously worked as an executive at Duro-Last and is now a lawyer who campaigns on lowering taxes and reducing government spending.

Tunney's campaign has focused on several angles to challenge Greene's momentum. Senior advisor Brian Szmytke has pointed to the "extremely nasty" Democratic primary between Greene and Pamela Pugh, noting that some Pugh supporters may vote Republican rather than for Greene.

"The Democratic primary was extremely nasty between Chedrick and Pam Pugh," Szmytke said. "We talk to Pam Pugh voters every day that say, 'I'm not voting for Chedrick,' and some of them tell us they'll vote for Jason, and some tell us they're sitting home (for the May election)."

Tunney also gained visibility during a March 24 candidate forum at Saginaw Valley State University, where both he and Greene fielded questions. Szmytke compared Greene's performance to President Joe Biden's debates during the 2024 presidential election, suggesting that voters may view him as out of touch.

The Wild Card: Ali Sledz

Libertarian candidate Ali Sledz, a Midland resident, has been largely excluded from the main political discourse. The Libertarian Party of Michigan nominated Sledz at their convention in January, giving her less name recognition than the two major party candidates.

Sledz acknowledged her slim chances of winning, calling it "the upset of the century," but plans to run anyway to grow support for Libertarian policies in the Great Lakes Bay Region.

"My opponents are beholden to a party and, yes, I have a party as well, but my party wants to leave you the heck alone," Sledz said.

The Broader Political Context

This special election comes at a critical juncture for Michigan politics. The upcoming August 4 primary election will determine candidates for key state races, including governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and all seats in the state Legislature.

The outcome of the 35th District special election will provide insights into the state's political direction for the rest of the year. Saginaw County has been a consistent bellwether for state elections, and the special election's result may signal where Michigan is heading in the broader midterms.

If the Republican wins the special election, it could embolden GOP candidates in the August primary. Conversely, a Democratic victory would provide momentum to Democrats running for statewide office and legislative seats.

What's at Stake for Lansing Politics

The special election has broader implications for Lansing politics beyond just who controls the Senate. With Republicans controlling the State House and Democrats holding a one-seat advantage in the Senate, a tied Senate would fundamentally alter the legislative landscape.

A tied Senate would force complex negotiations and could lead to increased gridlock or, conversely, more bipartisan cooperation depending on which party holds the procedural advantage. The outcome could influence how legislation moves through the state capitol for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

Voters in District 35 will send their message on Tuesday, May 5, with absentee ballots already arriving in households across the district. The winner of this special election could shape Michigan politics for years to come.