Tightening Race

The Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary has intensified as businessman Perry Johnson continues to close the gap on U.S. Rep. John James through a aggressive advertising campaign and growing support in key areas.

A new poll conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling shows the race is nearly even, with James at 23% and Johnson at 20% among likely Republican primary voters. The poll found 44% of respondents still undecided as the August primary approaches.

Johnson, 78, a Bloomfield Hills resident who built his fortune as a quality control consultant for the auto industry, has self-funded what he estimates is a $10 million television advertising blitz. Campaign strategist John Yob told the Macomb Daily that since the TV ads hit the market in March, there has been a 40-point swing surge from James to Perry.

Macomb County Focus

Johnson's campaign has increasingly focused on Macomb County, where James now lives after representing the 10th Congressional District since 2022. Longtime Macomb County Republican leader Stanley Grot, the Shelby Township clerk, told the Macomb Daily that the poll results show people are responding to Johnson's message.

"There's a reason for him peaking now," Grot said. "People are finding out who he is. James has an established name. But Perry is catching up fast."

Johnson emphasized that winning Macomb County would be essential to winning statewide. "It's no secret that if you are going to win Michigan, you have to win in Macomb, because Macomb is one of the bastions for Republicans," Johnson told supporters at Da Francesco Italian Cuisine & Cafe in Shelby Township.

Top Issues

The poll found that eliminating fraud, waste and abuse in state spending is the top issue among likely Republican primary voters, with 32% saying it is the most important state issue. Nineteen percent said reducing or reforming property taxes is the most important issue, while 18% said ensuring secure elections is the state's top concern.

Among those who responded, 61% said they strongly favor military action from the United States and Israel in Iran. The poll recorded about 450 responses from March 21 to March 23.

Campaign Exchange

Tensions between the campaigns escalated after Johnson shared a screenshot of a fundraising text message sent by the James campaign that read, "My campaign could be over." Johnson's team described the text as showing James' desperation, while the James campaign defended it as a strategic fundraising message showing a worst-case scenario within the margin of error.

Campaign spokesperson Hannah Osantowske wrote to the Michigan Advance that "Team James sent a general election themed fundraising text message showing John in the worst case within the margin of error. The RCP average has him ahead of Benson by 3.5 and Duggan by 16."

Johnson's campaign responded that James is "in deep trouble, he knows it, and is now communicating that desperation to his supporters."

Democratic and Independent Candidates

Competing for the Democratic nomination for governor are Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running for governor as an independent to succeed incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited.

Johnson told the Shelby Township audience he sees Benson winning the August primary. The Democratic nomination will be decided in the August primary election, with the general election scheduled for November 3.

Field Overview

The Republican field includes former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard of DeWitt, and Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township, in addition to Johnson and James. A nominee will be chosen in the August primary election.

The poll also found that 46% of respondents described themselves as a Trump/MAGA Republican, 25% voted for the person and not the party, and 14% were traditional or establishment Republicans.

What's at Stake

The Michigan governor's office holds significant influence over state policy, budget decisions, and appointments. The next governor will work with the Michigan Legislature on the state budget, which is expected to grow by about $30 billion over the last decade, from $54 billion in fiscal year 2016 to about $84 billion in fiscal year 2026.

About a third of that growth is because of increases in the amount of federal dollars flowing to the state, according to the Detroit News. State legislators don't have discretion over how that money is used.

The Republican primary is scheduled for August 4, with the general election on November 3.

Sources