A Bellwether Race That Could Decide Control of Michigan Senate

The Michigan Senate 35th district special election on May 5 could determine whether Democrats maintain their precarious one-seat majority in Lansing. With Republicans Jason Tunney, Democrat Chedrick Greene, and Libertarian Ali Sledz competing for the open seat, the race has emerged as a potential bellwether for the state's November midterm elections.

The special election will fill a seat that has been vacant since Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned in January 2025 to take a seat in Congress. The eventual winner will serve out the remaining seven months of McDonald Rivet's term and then face re-election in November if they wish to continue serving through 2030.

The Candidates

Jason Tunney (Republican) - A Saginaw-based lawyer and businessman, Tunney previously worked as an assistant prosecutor in the Saginaw County Prosecutor's Office and in his family business Duro-Last. He has positioned himself as a pro-business candidate who wants to make Michigan more attractive to companies and job seekers.

During a March 25 candidate forum at Saginaw Valley State University, Tunney criticized Michigan's business environment, noting that electricians from Texas cannot simply come to Michigan and work. "You've got electricians down in Texas. They get their journeyman's card; they can't come up here. They've got to get totally re-licensed to become a journeyman electrician up here in this state," Tunney said at the forum. He also called for budget cuts and a hiring freeze on certain state positions, arguing against using the state's rainy-day fund to address budget shortfalls.

Chedrick Greene (Democrat) - A Saginaw fire captain and retired Sergeant Major in the Marines, Greene has campaigned on making the state more affordable and safe. He supports red flag laws that would allow temporary removal of guns from individuals deemed a threat through court orders, and he advocates for safe gun storage laws.

Greene has expressed openness to using money from Michigan's rainy-day fund to address the state's over $1 billion budget shortfall. "Pulling out of the rainy-day fund to help balance the budget would make sense," Greene said during the SVSU forum. He also emphasized the need to push skilled trades into high schools and attract manufacturers back to Michigan.

Ali Sledz (Libertarian) - A Midland mother and Army spouse who is pursuing a master's degree in counseling, Sledz will compete in the May 5 general election. The Libertarian candidate brings a third-party perspective to a race that Democrats have been heavily investing in.

Why This Race Matters

The 35th district encompasses parts of Midland, Bay, and Saginaw counties - a politically diverse region that analysts have framed as a bellwether for the country's political climate. With the election scheduled just over three weeks before the May 5 special election, Tunney has already spent significant time knocking on doors across the district, according to Midland County Republican Party chair Cathy Leikhim.

Midland County Republicans will host their annual Dave Camp Spring Breakfast on April 13 with Tunney as the keynote speaker. The event, named after former U.S. Representative Dave Camp who served in Congress for 24 years, will also feature appearances by U.S. Representative John Moolenaar and State Representative Bill G. Schuette.

The Stakes

With Democrats currently holding a 19-18 majority in the Michigan Senate, the outcome of this special election could determine whether that slim majority survives through the end of 2026. The winner of the race will then have to run again on the November midterm ballot in order to continue serving in the state Senate through 2030.

Ballots were mailed to Midland voters on March 27 to registered voters on the Permanent Absentee Ballot Mailing list and those who returned absentee ballot applications. Voters can track their ballot status at Michigan.gov/vote.

The race has drawn attention from both national and local Democratic organizations, which are focusing resources on the 35th district. A national Democratic party group has been pouring resources into Michigan's 35th state Senate District race, recognizing the mid-Michigan area as a bellwether for the country's political climate.

Key Issues

The candidates have taken sharply different positions on several key issues:

Gun Control - Greene supports red flag laws and safe gun storage, while Tunney opposes red flag laws as violations of constitutional rights to bear arms.

Budget - Greene is open to using the rainy-day fund to address budget shortfalls, while Tunney calls for budget cuts and a hiring freeze on certain state positions.

Economic Development - Tunney wants the state to be more business-friendly and cut regulations, while Greene emphasizes skilled trades education and attracting manufacturers back to Michigan.

Data Centers - Tunney says Michigan needs to act in its "national defense" but opposes non-disclosure agreements. Greene would welcome data centers with environmental and rate protections in place.

Looking Ahead

The May 5 special election will determine if Senate Democrats can hold their one-seat majority in Lansing. With absentee ballots already in the mail and candidates actively campaigning, the race remains highly competitive as it heads into its final weeks.

The outcome of this special election could serve as an important indicator of how Michigan voters feel about the state's direction heading into the November midterms, which will see all 38 state Senate seats up for election.

Sources

  • Jason Tunney to keynote Midland GOP spring breakfast ahead of special election - https://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/jason-tunney-midland-breakfast-22183208.php
  • Midland begins mailing absentee ballots for 35th District special election - https://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/midland-absentee-ballots-special-election-22155359.php
  • Tunney and Greene spar over gun control, education at 35th District forum - https://radio.wcmu.org/local-regional-news/2026-03-25/tunney-and-greene-spar-over-gun-control-education-at-35th-district-forum
  • SVSU hosts forum for Michigan's 35th District Senate candidates - https://www.wnem.com/2026/03/25/svsu-hosts-forum-michigans-35th-district-senate-candidates/
  • 2026 Michigan Senate election - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Michigan_Senate_election