Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods could constrain about $1.5 billion worth of Michigan exports, according to a Detroit News analysis of federal trade data. The tariffs, ranging from 15% to 50%, are set to take effect Sept. 8 and will apply to more than 700 items, including iron, steel, aluminum and derivative articles made from those metals.

Michigan's manufacturing sector is especially vulnerable to import taxes on those products.

"It would have a dramatic impact, and it's not just automotive," said John Walsh, CEO of the Michigan Manufacturing Association. He added, "The retaliatory impact is on the building blocks of almost any item manufactured. When you're talking about metals, plastic, steel and aluminum, it's in everything: cars, airplanes, equipment."

Targeted pressure

The Canadian tariffs are meant to affect $20 billion worth of U.S. exports, matching the dollar amount from President Donald Trump's latest levies on a list of goods including cement, wine, dairy and hockey sticks. Canadian officials say the reciprocal impact will purposefully target key sectors and states, like Michigan, with particular economic and political importance.

"We are also targeting products that will target states in the U.S.," said Melanie Joly, Canada's industry minister, as she announced the tariffs on Aug. 25. "And so we're being wise and strategic to put political pressure, and that's why we think it's the right thing to do right now."

Michigan exported about $23.6 billion worth of goods to Canada over the past year, with nearly $1.5 billion coming from product categories on the country's new tariff list. The state ranks seventh among U.S. states in potential tariff exposure, the Detroit News analysis found. Seven of the top 10 exposed states are in the Midwest and/or share a border with Canada.

American Foundry Society CEO Justin Scott said in an email that Michigan "sits at the heart of one of the most integrated cross-border manufacturing relationships anywhere."

"The Detroit-Windsor corridor is the busiest commercial crossing in North America, and a casting poured on one side of the border may be machined on the other before it goes into a finished vehicle," Scott said. "That integration has been a strength for decades, which also means Michigan feels tariff friction faster than other regions."

Pennsylvania ranks first at about $2.6 billion in exposure. Michigan border states and fellow industrial hubs Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin rank fifth, sixth and ninth, respectively.

Compounding costs

Michigan companies that typically export to Canadian counterparts will either need to absorb the cost of the tariffs or find new business partners domestically or abroad.

Early indicators suggest Michigan businesses have engaged in less international trade amid Trump's multi-front global tariff push. The state's exports to Canada fell from $24.6 billion in 2024 to $23.2 billion last year, per federal data. Michigan exports to all countries dropped from $62.8 billion to $60.3 billion.

Walsh said manufacturers in Michigan are angry and frustrated by the challenges associated with tariffs over the past year.

"The uncertainty is driving costs higher. The ability to plan is right out the window," Walsh said. "It means more costs and new supply chains, temporary or otherwise. It's more work. They've got other things to do and other priorities to pursue."

Foundries, which are factories that melt and shape metal into castings, are "capital-intensive businesses that make long-term commitments," Scott said.

"The uncertainty is as damaging as the duties themselves," Scott said. "Members on both sides of the border are telling us the same thing: They need predictability. Foundries can adapt to a changing trade landscape, but adapting takes time and capital, and a landscape that shifts week to week makes it very hard to plan capacity and invest with confidence."

Midterm implications

The 2026 midterm elections will feature key races across the states most impacted by Canada's new tariffs, though perhaps none more pivotal than Michigan's U.S. Senate contest featuring Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. The winner of that race could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.

Some Canadian leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, have suggested they would work to get Democrats or other anti-Trump politicians elected in November.

"Your own people, President Trump, don't even like you. And they're gonna speak loud and clear in the midterms," Ford said on Aug. 24.

El-Sayed, who represents Ann Arbor, went after Trump and Rogers directly in an Aug. 26 statement.

"Donald Trump is launching this trade war for his own vanity, and he's asking Michigan families to pay the price," El-Sayed said. "Trump has been failing Michigan through these chaotic tariffs and bad trade deals for far too long. Mike Rogers won't do anything but rubber stamp them. When I'm in the United States Senate, I'll fight for real, fair trade deals that create good-paying jobs for Michigan workers and prioritize our families over billionaires and corporate greed."

Rogers, of White Lake Township, issued a statement on Aug. 29 giving qualified support for Trump's trade policy toward Canada and criticizing Michigan's two Democratic senators.

"President Trump is right to put America First, and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution," Rogers said. "Elissa Slotkin and Gary Peters are missing in action. Michigan deserves a Senator who will work with President Trump to broker a trade deal with Canada that supports our farmers and gets the best deal for Michigan autoworkers and manufacturers."

Hardest-hit industries

The top Michigan exports facing new tariffs from Canada include sheet steel, fasteners, tooling equipment and industrial robots, all products that play a role in the automotive industry and other manufacturing sectors.

"A casting often crosses the border more than once before it ends up in a finished product, so when tariffs apply in both directions, the costs compound," Scott said.

Iron and steel products represent the biggest Michigan product category subject to the tariffs. The state exported more than $800 million worth of such goods to Canada between July 2025 and June 2026, the most recent 12 months with available data.

Scott said he sees the competitive threat to the U.S. metalworking industry coming from outside North America as "unfairly traded imports built on illegal subsidies and massive overcapacity, increasingly routed through third countries to evade U.S. enforcement." He is calling for an end to the trade war with Canada.

"The fastest way to strengthen North America's industrial base is to resolve U.S.-Canada frictions quickly," Scott said, "and keep enforcement focused where it belongs."