LANSING, Mich. — The Michigan Center for Data and Analytics (MCDA) on Thursday released its 2024 to 2034 Statewide Long-Term Employment Projections, a report that paints a picture of a state economy in transition. The data show modest overall job growth over the decade, with healthcare, financial services, and professional services leading the gains, while manufacturing and retail post some of the steepest declines.
The full report, available on the MCDA website, offers policymakers and workforce development agencies a detailed map of where the state's labor force is headed over the next ten years.
Healthcare drives the biggest gains
The Education and health services supersector is projected to add 60,200 jobs by 2034, the largest gain of any industry group in the state. That represents a 5.6 percent growth rate, slightly above the national pace of 5.2 percent.
The growth is concentrated almost entirely in healthcare. Hospitals are expected to add 25,700 jobs, while ambulatory health care services are projected to gain 22,570. Social assistance will add 9,900 positions, and nursing and residential care facilities are expected to grow by 8,110.
By contrast, the educational services portion of the supersector is projected to contract by 6,070 jobs, a divergence that underscores how much of the growth story in this supersector is a healthcare story rather than an education story.
Financial and professional services also grow
Financial activities is projected to add 10,330 jobs over the decade, a 4.4 percent growth rate that ranks second in the state. More than 90 percent of that growth is expected to come from just two subsectors: real estate (+6,140) and insurance carriers and related activities (+3,330).
Professional and business services is the third largest contributor of new jobs (+8,430) and the fourth fastest growing by rate (+1.3 percent). Professional, scientific, and technical services leads the supersector with a projected gain of 12,870 jobs, while most other subsectors within the group are expected to contract.
Construction and natural resources and mining are also projected to grow, though at a smaller scale. Combined, those two supersectors are expected to add 3,630 new jobs.
Manufacturing set to shed the most jobs
The headline loss in the report belongs to manufacturing. Michigan's manufacturing supersector is projected to lose 31,120 jobs from 2024 to 2034, a 5.2 percent decline that is more than the next three supersectors combined.
That trajectory is consistent with the state's experience over the past two decades. From 2000 to 2024, Michigan lost 32.3 percent of its manufacturing jobs, compared to a 25.8 percent national loss. The projections indicate that Michigan's manufacturing sector will continue to underperform the national average, which is expected to remain roughly flat over the decade.
The losses are concentrated in subsectors closely tied to the automotive industry. Transportation equipment manufacturing is projected to lose 21,840 jobs, a 12.0 percent decline. Fabricated metal product manufacturing is expected to shed 7,050 jobs, and machinery manufacturing to lose 6,770. Only eight of the 21 manufacturing subsectors are projected to gain employment.
Retail and food services also decline
Trade, transportation, and utilities is expected to lose 16,840 jobs over the decade, the second largest numeric decline among supersectors. The losses are concentrated in retail, with clothing and shoe retailers projected to shed 5,700 jobs, food and beverage retailers to lose 5,070, and gasoline stations to drop 4,550.
Leisure and hospitality posts the third largest numeric job decline (minus 7,480). Food services and drinking places are projected to lose 9,680 jobs, more than offsetting modest gains in accommodation and the performing arts subsectors.
Information is projected to fall at the fastest rate of any supersector, a decline of 8.5 percent, although the absolute loss is smaller at 4,790 jobs.
Occupations: healthcare dominates
When the projections are broken down by occupation, the healthcare story becomes even clearer. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 28,610 jobs, with healthcare support occupations close behind at 24,100 new positions.
Home health and personal care aides are the single occupation projected to add the most jobs statewide, with a gain of 14,200. Registered nurses are expected to add 9,030, and nurse practitioners to add 3,410.
Management occupations are projected to grow by 12,120 jobs, with medical and health services managers (+4,010), financial managers (+2,380), and computer and information systems managers (+1,610) accounting for about two-thirds of the net growth in that group.
On the losing side, office and administrative support is projected to shed 30,040 jobs, production to lose 27,430, and sales and related occupations to drop 23,380. Cashiers are projected to post the largest expected numeric loss of any occupation in the state, a decline of 11,980 jobs.
MCDA noted that declining occupations will continue to generate significant annual openings. Cashiers, despite the projected long-term decline, are still expected to generate nearly 15,000 openings each year, the fourth highest of any Michigan occupation.
What the data mean for policy
The projections offer a detailed map that can help state and local stakeholders direct workforce development funding, education investments, and industry recruitment strategies. The shift away from manufacturing and toward healthcare and professional services suggests that workforce training programs, apprenticeships, and educational pipelines may need to be reoriented over the coming decade to meet projected demand.
The full dataset and detailed breakdowns by industry and occupation are available on the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics website.